Question 2 of 25 in Geopolitics
Started Apr 21, 2022 04:00PM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC

Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?

This question will be resolved using open-source media reporting. For the purposes of this question: 

  • “Taking possession” would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of an island by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 consecutive hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. Control will be determined using reputable news media reporting (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC).
  • “Chinese security or paramilitary forces” includes both the People’s Liberation Army and any paramilitary associated with the People's Republic of China (e.g., the Maritime Militia). 
  • "Islands considered currently under the control of Taiwan" include the island groups of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu, as well as other islands in the South China Sea. It does not include disputed islands claimed by Taiwan but not under Taiwanese control (e.g., the Senkaku Islands and some of the Spratly Islands).
Additional reading: 

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 2.77% +0.25% +0.12%
No 97.23% -0.25% -0.12%

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