How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?

Started Apr 28, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC

AI skills migration refers to the AI talent gained or lost due to migration trends. Question will be resolved using data from the OECD’s policy observatory’s data on AI jobs and skills. This data is from the World Bank Group-LinkedIn "Digital Data for Development" partnership.  

The link will take you to the “Between Country AI Skills Migration” page. Select “OECD Countries” as the group and then click the CSV icon to download the data. Note that Cyprus and Malta are not included in this dataset. 

The list of European Union countries can be found here. In 2021, 6 European Union Countries had AI skill migration greater than 2: Austria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, and Luxembourg. 

See here for more information about the OECD’s methodology and the LinkedIn data they use for this metric. Question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and resolved when the OECD database is updated.  

New to AI? Check out our blog post on AI competitiveness for a list of resources to jumpstart your research. To learn more about the OECD data and how it's used by policy makers, check out this video.

Question clarification
Issued on 10/06/22 10:04pm
The text of this question mistakenly read "2 per 100,000" instead of the "2 per 10,000" number used in the background information and resolution source. This typo has been corrected, and this change should not impact your forecasts.
Resolution Notes

2 EU countries, Germany (2.87) and Luxembourg (5.58), had an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 3 2%
Between 3 and 5, inclusive 12%
Between 6 and 7, inclusive 46%
Between 8 and 10, inclusive 36%
More than 10 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 216
Average for questions older than 6 months: 190
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

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