Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?

Started Apr 28, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC

Disputes over the border between China and India have resulted in fatal clashes in recent years (Carnegie Endowment). This question will be resolved using open source media reporting. Note that clashes do not necessarily have to be about the border dispute to count for the purposes of this question. Civilian fatalities will be included in the count.

Assessing fatalities in conflict situations is complex. INFER will use all available evidence to assess the number of fatalities. When ranges are provided, we will tend toward the most conservative estimate.  

Additional reading: 
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.10%
No 98.90%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 111
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 646
Average for questions older than 6 months: 179
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

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