How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022?

Started Jun 02, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC

Advances in artificial Intelligence, robotics, and sensory technology has sparked a revolution in self driving vehicles (NHTSA, Wired), but concerns about safety (National Law Review) and distrust of AI (International Journal of Human Computer Interaction) may hamper progress.  
 
Question will be resolved by counting the California DMV’s Autonomous Vehicle Collision reports with June accident dates. To access the list of reports, scroll down and click the + by the year “2022.”  The California Department of Motor Vehicles requires that manufacturers who are testing autonomous vehicles report any collision that resulted in property damage, bodily injury, or death within 10 days of the incident. To account for lags in reporting, the question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and resolved on 21 July 2022. 
 
Additional Reading: 
Resolution Notes

13 recorded collisions in June 2022

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 5 0%
Between 5 and 9, inclusive 8%
Between 10 and 14, inclusive 32%
Between 15 and 19, inclusive 41%
More than or equal to 20 19%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 76
Average for questions older than 6 months: 56
Number of Forecasts 174
Average for questions older than 6 months: 168
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.224
2.
-0.187
3.
-0.172
4.
-0.158
5.
-0.146

Consensus Trend

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