Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?

Started Jul 28, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 02, 2022 03:59AM UTC

General elections are scheduled to occur in Brazil to elect the President, Vice President, and much of the Federal Congress on 2 October 2022. The first round will occur on 2 October 2022 for the President and Vice President. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the first round, a runoff election on 30 October 2022 occurs between the first and second vote-receivers (International Foundation for Electoral Systems). President Jair Bolsonaro has said that he may not accept the result of the presidential election and that he would not hand over the presidency if there was any vote fraud, which includes his demand that the current computerized voting system is replaced by paper ballots. Bolsonaro's comments have added to concerns that he is setting the stage to refuse to accept a potential election loss (Reuters).

Additional reading:

This question will resolve as “Yes” if Jair Bolsonaro or an entity acting on his behalf (e.g., the Liberal Party/PL) either files an action for an electoral judicial investigation or a challenge to an electoral mandate following the 2022 Brazilian presidential election. This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC).  

Resolution Notes

Bolsonaro issued a formal challenge to election results under the claim that some voting machines had malfunctioned. Judge Alexandre de Moraes rejected the challenge.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-files-complaint-challenge-election-results-2022-11-22/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/24/brazil-judge-fines-bolsonaro-allies-millions-after-bad-faith-election-challenge

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 85.08%
No 14.92%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 86
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 161
Average for questions older than 6 months: 204
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.099
2.
-0.097
3.
-0.09
4.
-0.085
5.
-0.081

Consensus Trend

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