Will the price per chip-hour of Google’s cloud-based Tensor Processing Unit (TPU v4) be greater than $3.22 on January 1, 2023?

Started Aug 11, 2022 08:30PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC

Google’s tensor processing units (TPUs) are AI hardware accelerators that have led to dramatic improvements in training large machine learning models based on neural networks. Google began using TPUs internally in 2015, and in 2018 made them available for third party use, both as part of its cloud infrastructure and by offering a smaller version of the chip for sale (Wikipedia). While per-unit costs of cloud computing services tend to fall over time, analysts are concerned that the current geopolitical and economic environment could mean that this is due for a correction in the near future (S&P Global). 


This question will resolve using the "on-demand / evaluation" price per chip-hour for Cloud TPU v4 available on Google's Cloud TPU Pricing page. At the time of question posting (11 August 2022), the price was $3.22. This question will resolve "no" if the price is the same ($3.22) or is lower on 1 Jan 2023.

Resolution Notes

Price was $3.22

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.36%
No 99.64%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 41
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 156
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.007926
2.
-0.007115
3.
-0.005084
4.
-0.005008
5.
-0.004257

Consensus Trend

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