In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023?
Started
Sep 01, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
Synthetic biology has shown promise both in breaking down plastics through enzymatic recycling and microbiome engineering as well as producing new bio-based plastics. Yet as the energy sector moves away from fossil fuels, oil and gas companies are increasingly looking to the production of plastics and other petrochemical products as a “plan B” (CNBC, Marketplace). The Bio-Optimized Technologies to keep Thermoplastics out of Landfills and the Environment (BOTTLE) consortium is a research consortium with the goal of developing new ways to break down, upcycle, and re-design plastics at scale. This consortium is led by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Manufacturing Office and Bioenergy Technologies Office and members include U.S. National Laboratories and research universities (NREL).
Currently, BOTTLE lists Amazon, KraftHeinz, The Ocean Foundation, and Patagonia as its industry partners. For the purposes of this question, a “top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company” refers to any "USA" company listed in the top 20 of either the Largest chemical companies by market cap or the Largest oil and gas companies by market cap lists on companiesmarketcap.com. At the time of question publication, these companies are:
- Air Products and Chemicals (APD)
- Corteva (CTVA)
- Dow (DOW)
- Albermarle (ALB)
- PPG Industries (PPG)
- Dupont De Nemours (DD)
- Exxon Mobil (XOM)
- Chevron (CVX)
- ConocoPhillips (COP)
- Duke Energy (DUK)
- Southern Company (SO)
- EOG Resources (EOG)
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
If any of these companies join the BOTTLE consortium, this question will resolve as “Yes”. If another U.S.-based company joins the consortium and is in the top 20 chemical or oil and gas companies at that time, this question will also resolve “Yes”.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.10% | |
| No | 99.90% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 72 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 59 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 405 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
