What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?

Started Mar 12, 2021 02:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 16, 2021 05:59AM UTC

Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here

Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services.

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Resolution Notes

$690.3192 billion

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $400 billion 5%
Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive 15%
More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion 50%
More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion 27%
More than $775 billion 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 62
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 272
Average for questions older than 6 months: 192
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

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Relative Brier Score


Consensus Trend

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