How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?

Started Mar 12, 2021 02:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.

Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. 

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on "initial approvals" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2022.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The "Big 5" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. 

The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Resolution Notes

There were 8,695 visa applications for Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft. This number includes applications from Meta Platforms, in accordance with Facebook's name change during FY2022.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 7,500 7%
Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive 14%
More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500 34%
More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500 27%
More than 13,500 18%

Crowd Forecast Profile

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Number of Forecasters 82
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 331
Average for questions older than 6 months: 192
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

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