How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?
Started
Dec 15, 2022 08:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Advances in artificial Intelligence, robotics, and sensory technology has sparked a revolution in self driving vehicles (NHTSA, Wired), but concerns about safety (National Law Review) and distrust of AI (International Journal of Human Computer Interaction) may hamper progress.
Question will be resolved by counting the California DMV’s Autonomous Vehicle Collision reports with accident dates from January through March 2023. To access the list of past reports, scroll down and click the + by the year “2022.”
The California Department of Motor Vehicles requires that manufacturers who are testing autonomous vehicles report any collision that resulted in property damage, bodily injury, or death within 10 days of the incident. To account for lags in reporting, the question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and resolved on 17 April 2023.
Additional Reading:
Resolution Notes
The California DMV recorded 32 autonomous vehicle collisions from January to March 2023
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 20 | 3% | |
| Between 20 and 29, inclusive | 69% | |
| Between 30 and 39, inclusive | 26% | |
| Between 40 and 49, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than or equal to 50 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 82 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 51 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 332 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 129 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
