How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?

Started Dec 15, 2022 08:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC

Advances in artificial Intelligence, robotics, and sensory technology has sparked a revolution in self driving vehicles (NHTSA, Wired), but concerns about safety (National Law Review) and distrust of AI (International Journal of Human Computer Interaction) may hamper progress.  
 
Question will be resolved by counting the California DMV’s Autonomous Vehicle Collision reports with accident dates from January through March 2023. To access the list of past reports, scroll down and click the + by the year “2022.”  

The California Department of Motor Vehicles requires that manufacturers who are testing autonomous vehicles report any collision that resulted in property damage, bodily injury, or death within 10 days of the incident. To account for lags in reporting, the question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and resolved on 17 April 2023. 
 
Additional Reading: 
Resolution Notes

The California DMV recorded 32 autonomous vehicle collisions from January to March 2023

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 20 3%
Between 20 and 29, inclusive 69%
Between 30 and 39, inclusive 26%
Between 40 and 49, inclusive 1%
More than or equal to 50 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 82
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 332
Average for questions older than 6 months: 214
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.226675
2.
-0.186994
3.
-0.13031
4.
-0.119429
5.
-0.1055

Consensus Trend

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