Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?

Started Jan 05, 2023 09:30PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC

Orbital rockets are used to launch satellites into orbit around the earth. The number of orbital launches has skyrocketed in recent years, due in large part to increases in Chinese state-led space industry and increased activity by SpaceX (Ars Technica). According to RocketLaunch.Live’s 2022 data, the U.S. launched 85 orbital rockets, and China launched 62. In 2021, China led with 52, compared to 48 launched for the U.S. These are the highest numbers of launches China has ever completed (Global Times).  
 
Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved using RocketLaunch.Live’s tally of successful orbital rocket launches for January 2023.  
Resolution Notes

The U.S. launched 8 and China launched 5.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.97%
No 99.03%

Crowd Forecast Profile

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Number of Forecasters 84
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 134
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

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Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002389
2.
-0.002263
3.
-0.002263
4.
-0.002263
5.
-0.002122

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