From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia?

Started Jan 12, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 11, 2023 05:00AM UTC

This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of battle-related fatalities in Ethiopia for a given time period: 
  • Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates. 
  • Select “Battles” from the event type filter.
  • Select “Ethiopia” from the Region filter. 
  • Click “Apply Filters” 
  • Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”

Fatality counts from previous years are below:


Additional Reading: 
Resolution Notes

ACLED recorded 2038 fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia from 1 January to 10 November 2023.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 96.52%
No 3.48%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 448
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.976596
2.
-0.539954
3.
-0.499566
4.
-0.214375
5.
-0.207328

Consensus Trend

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