From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo?

Started Jan 12, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC

This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of battle-related fatalities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo for a given time period: 
  • Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates. 
  • Select “Battles” from the event type filter.
  • Select “Democratic Republic of the Congo” from the Region filter. 
  • Click “Apply Filters” 
  • Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”

Fatality counts from previous years are below:



Additional Reading: 
Resolution Notes

ACLED recorded 1,319 fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.09%
No 99.91%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 449
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

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Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.349974
2.
-0.330478
3.
-0.210415
4.
-0.192012
5.
-0.179145

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