Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?
Started
Mar 23, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
In October 2022, Michel Aoun completed his term as president of Lebanon, but the Lebanese parliament has yet to appoint his successor (PBS). Internal tensions between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi/U.S. factions have left the parliament unable to elect a successor despite multiple votes, and the country remains in the hands of a caretaker administration (Associated Press, BBC).
This question will resolve “Yes” if the Lebanese parliament appoints a president on or before 31 December 2023, as reported by reputable open-source news media coverage (e.g., AP News, Reuters, New York Times).
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.28% | |
| No | 99.72% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 67 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 58 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 467 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
