Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?
Started
Mar 23, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Seasons
In 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco signed agreements establishing diplomatic relations with Israel (Foreign Policy, Brookings, Al Jazeera). Current conversations suggest that others, including Saudi Arabia, may soon join them (New York Times), although anti-Israel sentiment may make that difficult (Middle East Eye).
Examples of agreements that have established diplomatic relations include the peace treaties Israel signed with Egypt and Jordan, as well as the normalization agreements that Israel signed with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco as part of the Abraham Accords.
This question will resolve “Yes” if any of the following countries sign an agreement with Israel establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations:
- Afghanistan
- Algeria
- Bangladesh
- Brunei
- Comoros
- Djibouti
- Indonesia
- Iran
- Iraq
- Kuwait
- Lebanon
- Libya
- Malaysia
- Maldives
- Mali
- Niger
- Oman
- Qatar
- Saudi Arabia
- Somalia
- Syria
- Tunisia
- Yemen
Note that while Sudan is also a Muslim-majority country, Israel and Sudan have agreed to a normalization deal that they are expected to sign later this year. The signing of this agreement will not count towards the resolution of this question. To forecast the likelihood that the Israel-Sudan deal is signed this year, please see this question.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.52% | |
| No | 99.48% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 99 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 58 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 695 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
