Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?

Started Mar 23, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC

In 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco signed agreements establishing diplomatic relations with Israel (Foreign Policy, Brookings, Al Jazeera). Sudan also signed the Abraham Accords promising to establish relations, but unlike the other signatories, did not immediately follow up with a bilateral agreement, due in large part to political instability in Sudan (Al Jazeera). A military coup in October 2021 further delayed normalization efforts (CNN). 

In February 2023, Israel and Sudan agreed on the text of a normalization agreement, and the signing is expected to happen later this year once the Sudanese military has transferred power to a civilian government (Reuters, Times of Israel). The transfer is set to occur on 11 April 2023, but some political figures within Sudan have condemned the decision, decrying a lack of consensus on key issues (AP News, Africa News). 

This question will resolve “Yes” if Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations between them on or before 31 December 2023. 
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.61%
No 98.39%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 104
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 792
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.080035
2.
-0.076134
3.
-0.073326
4.
-0.067608
5.
-0.063195

Consensus Trend

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