Will the Pheu Thai Party be part of a governing coalition in Thailand after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024?
Started
Apr 18, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 05, 2023 08:34AM UTC
Closed Sep 05, 2023 08:34AM UTC
Thailand’s election, scheduled for 14 May 2023, pits pro-military parties led by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha against pro-democracy parties, including Pheu Thai (CNN, CFR). This election is the second since the 2014 coup that brought General Prayut Chan-o-cha to power (BBC). The first election in 2019 was criticized by election monitors and opposition parties as illegitimate (CNN). It resulted in a pro-military governing coalition that elected Prayut as Prime Minister, despite Pheu Thai winning the most seats in the House of Representatives (The Guardian).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports. For the purposes of this question, the governing coalition is defined as the parties voting in favor of the Prime Minister who is ultimately elected to run the Thai government. The question will resolve “No” if a governing coalition is elected without Pheu Thai, if no election is held, or if no government is formed by 31 December 2023.
Question clarification
Issued on 05/01/23 03:15pm
The background info has been corrected to say that the Pheu Thai Party won the most seats in the House of Representatives (136), rather than a majority of seats.
The background info has been corrected to say that the Pheu Thai Party won the most seats in the House of Representatives (136), rather than a majority of seats.
Resolution Notes
Pheu Thai's Srettha Thavisin has been elected and prime minister and successfully formed a government.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99.13% | |
| No | 0.87% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 55 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 58 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 282 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
