Will Prayut Chan-o-cha be re-elected as prime minister of Thailand by the Thai parliament after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024?

Started Apr 18, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 22, 2023 09:00AM UTC

Prayut Chan-o-cha, Thailand’s current prime minister, came to power in a coup in 2014 (BBC). After the coup, the military oversaw the drafting of a new constitution and electoral laws that established that the Prime Minister would be elected by Thailand’s parliament, which consists of two chambers: the democratically elected House of Representatives and the military appointed Senate (Nikkei, IDEA).   
The 2019 election, the first since the coup, saw Prayut Chan-o-cha retain power after being re-elected prime minister by the new parliament (New York Times). However, election monitors and opposition parties raised concerns about the election’s legitimacy (CNN, The Guardian). Whether Prayut retains power after the 2023 election, tentatively scheduled for May, is seen as a critical test of whether or not Thailand has genuinely returned to democracy (Bloomberg, Nippon). 

Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports. The question will resolve “No" if the general election does not take place in 2023, the new parliament has not voted on the prime minister by 31 December, or the new parliament elects someone else as prime minister.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.40%
No 99.60%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 52
Average for questions older than 6 months: 57
Number of Forecasts 230
Average for questions older than 6 months: 193
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