When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

Started Jul 08, 2021 03:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC

Context. In Spring 2021, India became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic (CNBC; BBC). As of December 20, 2021, 829 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. 

Data and resolution details. The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government. Click "Vaccination State Data," which opens a daily PDF report, "Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination." Navigate to the "India" row in the column titled "1st Dose." Data is reported in Indian notation; one hundred crore (1,00,00,00,000) is equivalent to one billion (1,000,000,000) in international notation.

For time series data, see Our World in Data. Underlying data from Our World in Data is here.

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Question clarification
Issued on 09/23/21 10:55am
Note that 619 million people in India have currently received one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. I updated the data in the linked spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dw_lUvtMJjl0s94_5WtQk_KFaeulSXS59jLCgR-T1uM/edit#gid=0
Resolution Notes

Reported 1,000,379,665 people had received at least one dose on 28 April 2022 at 7 AM India Standard Time.

https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/CummulativeCovidVaccinationReport28April2022.pdf

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before January 1, 2022 4%
Between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2022 8%
Between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022 66%
Between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022 11%
Not before October 1, 2022 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 189
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 1026
Average for questions older than 6 months: 214
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.200056
2.
-0.196125
3.
-0.191045
4.
-0.185568
5.
-0.185147

Consensus Trend

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