Started May 28, 2020 08:14PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC

Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?

Context. On January 15, 2020, the U.S. and China entered into a trade agreement, offering a reprieve to the escalating trade war. The COVID-19 pandemic has slowed China's purchases of U.S. goods required by the agreement, and President Trump has threatened to terminate the agreement if China does not uphold its end (Washington Post).

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on reports in popular media sources. An official announcement of withdrawal qualifies. 

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 11.55%
No 88.45%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 145
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 236
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.071
2.
-0.07
3.
-0.066
4.
-0.056
5.
-0.055

Consensus Trend

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