Started Jul 15, 2021 07:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC

Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?

Related questions. Metaculus has (now closed) questions on the performance of the top supercomputer in 2022 and when the first exaFLOP supercomputer will appear.

Context. According to the Top500 list, Japan's Fugaku supercomputer has been the world's fastest supercomputer since June 2020, with a maximum performance of 442,010 TFLOP/s, or nearly half exascale. The United States has two exascale supercomputers expected to be operational in 2021 or 2022. Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Frontier supercomputer is scheduled for delivery in 2021, with full user operations in 2022. Argonne National Laboratory's Aurora was originally expected to be the first of the two but due to delays acquiring 7nm chips is now expected by some to debut in 2022.

China is also developing three exascale supercomputers expected by some to be operational in 2021-2022

In April 2021, the United States imposed export controls on four supercomputer centers in China purportedly working on exascale machines, citing national security concerns. 

Resolution details. This question resolves based on the maximum performance achieved using the LINPACK benchmark (rMax) according to the June 2022 Top500 list, which "shows the 500 most powerful commercially available computer systems known to us." The Top500 list publishes rankings in November and June every year. See here for more information about its methodology.

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This question was suggested by Foretell pro forecaster Ryan Beck (@RyanBeck).

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Resolution Notes

"Frontier is the new No. 1 system in the TOP500. This HPE Cray EX system is the first US system with a peak performance exceeding one ExaFlop/s."

https://www.top500.org/lists/top500/2022/06/

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 58.29%
No 41.71%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 197
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 808
Average for questions older than 6 months: 161
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

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-0.358
2.
-0.356
3.
-0.345
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-0.335

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