Started May 30, 2020 05:26PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Context. The People’s Republic of China regards Taiwan as an inevitable part of its territory and has threatened to invade it if the Taiwanese government takes steps toward formally declaring independence (Anti-Seccession Law, 2005). The current President of Taiwan, Tsai Ying-wen, belongs to a pro-independence political party. She was re-elected to office in January 2020. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has also conducted force modernization and drills to improve its readiness to invade Taiwan (2019 China Military Power Report).

Data and resolution details. The question resolves based on popular media sources. "Invade" refers to initiating hostilities for the purpose of annexation.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Question clarification
Issued on 07/24/20 10:31pm
This question resolves affirmatively if China seizes an island indisputably under Taiwan's jurisdiction. The request for clarification was prompted by a statement in the Washington Post article linked below regarding the possibility China seizes one of Taiwan's outlying islands. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/taiwan-says-threat-of-military-clash-with-china-is-on-the-rise/2020/07/22/6f6da4c8-cc0c-11ea-99b0-8426e26d203b_story.html?hpid=hp_world1-8-12_taiwan-china-840am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.19%
No 94.81%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 136
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 175
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001
2.
-0.001
3.
-0.001
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-0.001
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-0.001

Consensus Trend

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