Started Jun 01, 2020 11:26PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 25, 2021 06:59PM UTC

How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?

Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants (Arnold et al.

). It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. 

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on "initial approvals" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The"Big 5" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The date range, October 1 through September 30, is the government fiscal year.

The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. As of December 2020, the Employer Data Hub has data through Q3 of FY 2020 (June 30, 2020). In the first three quarters of FY 2020, 4,650 new H-1B applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies were granted. This figure is not reflected in the chart below.

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Resolution Notes

The answer is 11,142

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 5,000 22%
Between 5,000 and 7,500, inclusive 23%
More than 7,500 but less than or equal to 10,000 26%
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to12,500 17%
More than12,500 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 78
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 124
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.381
2.
-0.355
3.
-0.326
4.
-0.321
5.
-0.279

Consensus Trend

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