Started Jun 09, 2020 04:17PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC

How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?

Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).


Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force).


The data underlying the graph is here.


This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Question clarification
Issued on 11/02/20 03:53pm
Japan's "territorial airspace" is not the same as its "Air Defense Identification Zone" (ADIZ). Japan's air force typically scrambles jets in response to violations of its ADIZ, which it views as threats to its territorial airspace. This question resolves based on what Japan's Ministry of Defense reports as scrambles in response to "aircraft intruding into Japan's territorial airspace," regardless of whether the intrusion was in fact of Japan's territorial airspace. See, e.g., https://www.mod.go.jp/js/Press/press2020/press_pdf/p20200409_02.pdf
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 675 65%
Between 675 and 750, inclusive 17%
More than 750 but less than or equal to 825 9%
More than 825 but less than or equal to 900 5%
More than 900 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 86
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 157
Average for questions older than 6 months: 161
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.248
3.
-0.232
4.
-0.204

Consensus Trend

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