Started Aug 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC   •   Closed Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC

How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?

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Context. The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) was founded in 2015 with a mission to "strengthen U.S. national security by increasing the military's adoption of commercial technology." In response to DoD needs for commercial solutions, it solicits proposals, primarily from small businesses or non-traditional defense contractors. Successful applicants are contracted to develop prototypes. Transitions are successful prototypes that lead to large-volume procurement.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data in the DIU annual report, typically published in February or March of the following year.


The historical data underlying the graph is here.

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Final Crowd Forecast
Time Period 90% chance to be above Crowd Forecast 90% chance to be below
2021 7.13 13.98 25.86
2022 8.58 15.09 23.97
2023 9.93 17.73 27.33
2024 10.59 20.27 31.09
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