Started Aug 01, 2021 11:00AM UTC   •   Closing Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC

Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?

This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.

Related questions. A similar question was published on Metaculus in May 2018 as part of the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge. For a discussion of six Superforecasters on the chance of China-Taiwan conflict in the next five years, see here.

Context. Many view China as becoming increasingly military aggressive. Experts are divided on the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan. The chief of the general staff of Taiwan recently stated that although the chance of a "full-scale invasion of Taiwan" is unlikely, we might soon see "escalation short of all-out war." China and India have both recently increased their military presence on their disputed border, following the deadliest confrontation between the two countries there in June 2020. Others have suggested that Vietnam might be the "preferred warm-up fight" for China.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an official acknowledgment by the Chinese government claiming responsibility for the attack. A "national military attack" means the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country's national military forces on another country's territory, including against its military, military assets, or citizens, but excluding territorial waters, foreign missions, and exclusive economic zones. A cyber attack would not qualify as a national military attack. Attacks by specific military or paramilitary units or non-state actors would not qualify as "national military attacks" unless the government claims responsibility for them. 

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What are forecasters saying? Here is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.

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To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 

Question clarification
Issued on 05/06/22 07:40pm
Late last season, we introduced Continuous Risk questions to the platform. After scores were calculated for the first continuous questions, we reviewed the scoring mechanism and determined that some things about the way these questions were scored needed correction. The following issues have now been resolved, and scores for these questions have been updated. 1. Teams did not receive a score for the scored periods for this question. Now, team scores will include scores for this question if team members have submitted a forecast. 2. Forecasts made at the end of a scoring period were not carrying over to the next period, and the user would not receive a score until they made a new forecast, even if the forecast window extended beyond the end of the scoring period. Now, forecasts expire at the end of their forecast window unless they are updated. 3. Forecasts were scored over their forecast window and were continuing to be scored in the following scoring period without allowing the user to modify their forecast. Now, scoring is limited to the forecast window. Please reach out to [email protected] if you have any questions about this change.
Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 1.76% -0.14% -0.57% -2.09%
No 98.24% +0.14% +0.57% +2.09%

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