Started Aug 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC   •   Closed Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC

How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?

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Related question. We previously published a version of this question for Japanese FY 2020.  

Context. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force), typically in April of each year. The years being forecasted are the Japanese Fiscal Year, which for FY 2021 is April 1, 2021 through March 31, 2022.


The historical data underlying the graph is here.

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Final Crowd Forecast
Time Period 90% chance to be above Crowd Forecast 90% chance to be below
2021 307.09 536.4 872.2
2022 400.64 646.29 935.55
2023 417.35 705.09 989.24
2024 483.04 770.77 1060.54
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