Started Aug 24, 2021 01:30PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC

How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?

This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this demo video or blog post.

Related question. We previously published versions of this question—asking about the amount of money raised over a six-month period—forecasting the second half of 2020 and the second half of 2021. You can view those forecasts here and here.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is "private" if it's not publicly traded.

The historical and forecasted values are a four-quarter rolling sum. This question resolves based on data available 30 days after the end of each period. The question—and the graph below—therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. Forecasting for each six-month period ends halfway through the period. 

The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. 

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The historical data underlying the graph is here.

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Final Crowd Forecast
Time Period 90% chance to be above Crowd Forecast 90% chance to be below
2021 H2 141.93 188.73 235.71
2022 H1 134.07 199.58 274.29
2022 H2 129.5 211.33 296.89
2023 H1 128.88 217.88 309.2
2023 H2 130.46 231.66 341.06
2024 H1 134.84 238.2 342.07
2024 H2 130.09 229.12 355.05
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