Started Jun 18, 2020 09:28AM UTC   •   Closed Jun 29, 2020 03:59AM UTC

Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020?

Context. On June 15, 2020, a violent clash occurred between the Indian Army and People’s Liberation Army near the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between China and India in the disputed territory of Aksai Chin. While casualty figures are still unclear, between three and 20 Indian soldiers are believed to have been killed with an indeterminate number captured. PLA casualty figures are unknown (BBC). This is the first time in 55 years that a clash near the LAC has resulted in fatalities, and the Indian media has called the dead soldiers “martyrs” (News 18 India).


Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on reports in popular media sources. A qualifying event is one in which either the Chinese or Indian government authorizes a military escalation anywhere along the two nations' mutual border. The actions of deniable actors, such as militia or terrorist organizations, do not count for the purposes of resolving this question.


This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:


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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6.66%
No 93.34%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 62
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 86
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.022
2.
-0.022
3.
-0.022
4.
-0.017
5.
-0.009

Consensus Trend

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