Started Jun 18, 2020 01:31PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC

Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?

Context. Tensions between the U.S. and China heightened in mid-May when the Commerce Department announced that any company (U.S. or foreign) selling chips to Huawei will have to acquire a license if they use U.S. intellectual property or equipment in their production process. The Global Times, a daily tabloid newspaper under the Chinese Communist Party's People's Daily newspaper, reported on May 15 that the Chinese government is ready to take a series of countermeasures, including adding companies like Apple to an "unreliable entities list."

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. An official announcement about the inclusion of any of these companies in the list will suffice even if the effective date is after August 10, 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 12.97%
No 87.03%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 124
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 174
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.071
2.
-0.051
3.
-0.043
4.
-0.039
5.
-0.036

Consensus Trend

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