Started Jul 15, 2020 04:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC

Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020?

Context. In a "major U-turn," on July 14, 2020, the U.K. announced a ban on the Chinese tech company Huawei. The announcement came one day after U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien arrived in Paris to discuss 5G networks, among other topics, with his counterparts from the U.K., Germany, France, and Italy. According to Reuters, the U.S. is applying greater pressure on other EU countries to also impose stricter limits on Huawei.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on official announcements by Italy, France, Spain, and Germany.

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Question clarification
Issued on 07/17/20 10:31pm
There are reports that the Italian government has enacted new measures affecting Huawei through a "secretive three-page document." See https://formiche.net/2020/07/italy-5g-security-measures-impair-huawei-zte/ We will not treat these measures as a positive resolution unless/until they're officially announced by the Italian government.
Issued on 07/23/20 12:01pm
France's cybersecurity agency ANSSI has reportedly told French telecom operators that France won't renew licenses for Huawei 5G equipment, which Reuters is calling a "de facto ban." These actions would qualify as a positive resolution if they were officially announced, as required by the question. Currently, "ANSSI’s decisions have not been made public, either by the agency or by the companies." https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-huawei-5g-security-exclusive/exclusive-french-limits-on-huawei-5g-equipment-amount-to-de-facto-ban-by-2028-idUSKCN24N26R
Resolution Notes

This question required an official announcement to resolve affirmatively.

There are reports that the Italian government has enacted new measures affecting Huawei through a "secretive three-page document." See https://formiche.net/2020/07/italy-5g-security-measures-impair-huawei-zte/

And France's cybersecurity agency ANSSI reportedly told French telecom operators that France won't renew licenses for Huawei 5G equipment, which Reuters is calling a "de facto ban." But "ANSSI’s decisions have not been made public, either by the agency or by the companies." See https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-huawei-5g-security-exclusive/exclusive-french-limits-on-huawei-5g-equipment-amount-to-de-facto-ban-by-2028-idUSKCN24N26R

Accordingly neither of the above constitutes an affirmative resolution.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 20.24%
No 79.76%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 111
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 161
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

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1.
-0.126
2.
-0.118
3.
-0.118
4.
-0.113
5.
-0.11

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