Started Sep 28, 2020 09:59PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?

Related question. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here

Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.

Data and resolution details. This question asks about what will happen assuming Vice President Biden is elected. If he is not, this question will not be scored. If President Trump is re-elected, the companion question will be scored instead.

This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2021 or the month of September 2021, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. 


The data underlying the graph is here.

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Resolution Notes

The answer is 1.6%

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2% 8%
Between 2% and 3.5%, inclusive 23%
More than 3.5% but less than or equal to 5% 39%
More than 5% but less than or equal to 6.5% 22%
More than 6.5% 9%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 80
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 102
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Consensus Trend

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