Started Sep 30, 2020 01:04PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.


Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here.


The data underlying the graph is here.


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Question clarification
Issued on 10/30/20 01:37pm
We published two new versions of this question. The new versions ask about the 2022 Pew Survey and are conditional on the election results. We will publish a blog post analysis of the results on Monday. I encourage all of you to forecast them!
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 59% 11%
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive 17%
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73% 29%
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80% 30%
More than 80% 12%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 182
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 242
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.165
2.
-0.164
3.
-0.155
4.
-0.143
5.
-0.141

Consensus Trend

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