What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?

Started Nov 11, 2020 01:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.

Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.

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Resolution Notes

The answer is $6.6 billion. The linked spreadsheet has been updated to include the values for 2020-H2 and 2021-H1. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10TJj3St-AFLkLH11NaaGrvpPEJ3F2qb8sNPVOA_cy-Y/edit#gid=291338471

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $3.9 billion 7%
More than $3.9 billion but less than or equal to $4.5 billion 17%
Between $4.5 billion and $5.1 billion, inclusive 29%
Between $5.1 billion and $5.7 billion, inclusive 31%
More than $5.7 billion 16%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 62
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 79
Average for questions older than 6 months: 179
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

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