What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?
Closed Mar 01, 2021 05:59AM UTC
Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.
Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC).
Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.
The data underlying the graph is here.
This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
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Question clarification
Two clarifications: (i) This question is asking about China importing SME from abroad; not the U.S. importing SME from China. (ii) SME does not include semiconductor chips. The former comprises HS codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, and 901041; and the latter comprises HS code 8542.
$44.4 billion
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than $20 billion | 11% | |
| More than $20 billion but less than or equal to $30 billion | 33% | |
| Between $30 billion and $40 billion, inclusive | 32% | |
| Between $40 billion and $50 billion, inclusive | 15% | |
| More than $50 billion | 9% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 59 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 59 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 71 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
