Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?

Started Jan 31, 2022 01:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM UTC

The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence identified developments in micro-electronics and semiconductors as critical to the United States' competitive strategy (NSCAI Chapter 13). The Facilitating American-Built Semiconductors Act would offer an investment tax credit for investments in semiconductor manufacturing (Congress.Gov, Senate Finance). Tech companies are lobbying not only for passage, but for expansion of the credit to cover semiconductor design as well (Bloomberg, SIA).
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, for both manufacturing and design 24%
Yes, for only manufacturing 55%
Yes, for only design 2%
No 18%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 343
Average for questions older than 6 months: 214
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.46804
2.
-0.375828
3.
-0.368234
4.
-0.254104
5.
-0.253014

Consensus Trend

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