In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft?

Started Feb 17, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
Seasons

A lack of legal protections for intellectual property (IP) rights disincentivizes investment in critical machine learning and artificial intelligence systems, and a report by the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence identifies Chinese exploitation of IP policy as a key threat (NSCAI Chapter 12). The U.S. government has taken action in recent years to combat IP theft. In May 2020, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a presidential proclamation limiting student visas for Chinese graduate students with ties to the Chinese “military-civil fusion strategy”, and the Biden administration has thus far chosen not to rescind it. In February 2021, U.S. Congresswoman Debbie Lesko introduced a bill entitled Stop China’s IP Theft Act with the purpose of limiting the entry of Chinese military and government officials in retaliation for alleged efforts to infringe on U.S. intellectual property rights.  

This question will be resolved if the President of the United States issues a Presidential Proclamation or Executive Order, or if the U.S. Congress passes a bill that restricts visa issuance to employees of Chinese companies. The declaration should specifically cite concerns around intellectual property or China’s military-civil fusion strategy. 

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.61%
No 99.39%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 65
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 331
Average for questions older than 6 months: 214
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Scored Periods

Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Feb 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC - Mar 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC 10%
Mar 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC - Apr 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC 6%
Apr 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC - May 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC 5%
May 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC - Jun 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC 2%
Jun 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC - Jul 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC 1%
Jul 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC - Aug 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC 0%
Aug 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC - Sep 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC 0%
Sep 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC - Oct 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC 0%
Oct 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC - Nov 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC 2%
Nov 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC - Dec 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC 4%
Dec 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC - Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC 1%

Consensus Trend

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