How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?
Started
Feb 24, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
This question will resolve using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China’s Industrial Production Operation Report for December 2022, expected to be available January 2023. In December 2021, China produced 29.9 billion integrated circuit units and reported 359.4 billion total units for all of 2021 (Industrial Production Operation in December 2021). You can find reports by searching "Industrial Production Operation in [MONTH] [YEAR]” to find the statistics for IC production any given month. December reports also contain data for the entire calendar year.
Integrated circuits (ICs) are an assembly of electronic components on a small chip of semiconductor material (i.e., a microchip). ICs are integral to nearly all modern electronics and consequently their production is critical for any national advanced technology strategy. In 2021, Chinese semiconductor manufacturing accelerated, increasing 33.3% year-on-year, compared to a 16.2% increase in 2020 (South China Morning Post).
In 2015, China launched its Made In China 2025 initiative seeking to boost domestic manufacturing of critical technologies and increase self-sufficiency. This desire is due in part to the fear of sanctions from foreign governments and the inherent sensitivity of a global supply chain. The semiconductor industry has been an especially significant target, as China accounts for 34% of global semiconductor purchases, the most by any single country, but accounts for only 5% of sales (Semiconductor Industry Association 2021 Factbook).
Consequently, the Chinese government has begun investing heavily in domestic chip manufacturing. The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, a Chinese state-backed investment vehicle often referred to as “the Big Fund,” which began its second phase in October 2019, raised over RMB 200 billion (currently $31.5 billion USD) to invest in the semiconductor industry (EE Times).
Resolution Notes
324.2 billion
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202301/t20230118_1892296.html
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 200 billion | 0% | |
| More than or equal to 200 billion but less than 300 billion | 5% | |
| More than or equal to 300 billion but less than 400 billion | 91% | |
| More than or equal to 400 billion but less than 500 billion | 4% | |
| More than or equal to 500 billion | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 70 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 58 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 461 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
