Started Nov 18, 2020 01:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC

When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?

Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.

The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer "after November 17, 2021." In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. 

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before February 17, 2021 1%
Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive 5%
After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021 19%
After November 17, 2021 74%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 154
Average for questions older than 6 months: 57
Number of Forecasts 327
Average for questions older than 6 months: 162
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.134
2.
-0.131
3.
-0.13
4.
-0.124
5.
-0.119

Consensus Trend

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