Started Dec 02, 2020 03:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the "lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy." In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).

On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement "automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."

Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly "pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration." The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. 

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Question clarification
Issued on 12/18/20 04:08pm
A user asked why this question closes on June 1, 2021 while the question asks about whether an event will occur before December 31, 2021. I typically close questions -- meaning, stop accepting new forecasts -- before the end of the forecast period. As the end of the forecast window approaches, the probability of an event (assuming it hasn't occurred) typically approaches zero. In many cases, that makes the crowd forecast less useful. If the event is of interest, I'd rather issue a new question covering a later forecast window than continue collecting forecasts on a nearly closed forecast window. In this case, if the U.S. hasn't returned to compliance by June, I will probably re-issue the question to cover June 2021 to June 2022. To be clear: This question does not resolve until the end of the year, and it will resolve positively if the even occurs in the second half of the year, even though the question would no longer be open for new forecasts at that point.
Issued on 01/11/21 04:08pm
A forecaster asked whether "waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231" refers to ALL sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program or ANY sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program. The answer is: whatever sanctions must be waived in order for the U.S to be in compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 2231. Because the question resolves based on an official statement by the U.S., for purposes of this question, we're deferring to the U.S.'s interpretation of UN Security Council Resolution 2231.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 52.13%
No 47.87%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 257
Average for questions older than 6 months: 57
Number of Forecasts 654
Average for questions older than 6 months: 162
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.814
2.
-0.814
3.
-0.814
4.
-0.786
5.
-0.736

Consensus Trend

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