Factor
Silicon Valley protests
77% of stakeholders believe an increase in Silicon Valley protests would negatively affect the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship.
U.S. political polarization
Metric:
Will there be an organized employee protest at one of the “Big 5” tech companies against the company’s involvement with DoD in the next four quarters (year)?
Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
- Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of 46 percent, with a negative correlation (-0.3) between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship. The same/worse cohort’s average forecast (56 percent) is higher than the improve cohort’s average forecast (38 percent), indicating a greater expectation of protests.
- Crowd's view. The crowd’s forecast (25 percent) is lower than both stakeholder cohorts. The crowd’s forecast indicates an expectation of fewer protests, relative to the stakeholders. According to the stakeholder consensus, this has positive implications for the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship.
More information on stakeholder and crowd forecasts forthcoming.