In early 2024, RAND launched an initiative to pursue research and analysis on key under-examined security issues affecting the African continent and African diaspora countries.
Marie Jones, co-director of the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI), has published a series of analyses exploring some of the most urgent areas of policymaker concerns. RFI worked with Jones and RAND’s Africa Research team to author new forecast questions (tagged under “Africa”) to elicit the diverse perspectives of our forecasting community.
We asked Jones more about the efforts of the Africa Research team and how forecasts will contribute to their research:
Q: What topics do these questions cover, and how will the forecasts inform your research analysis?
A: RFI and RAND’s Africa Research team crafted forecast questions related to African governance and stability, as well as strategic competition with China and Russia. RFI plans to use the forecast outcomes to inform future publicly published commentaries on RAND.org aimed toward analytic units and policymakers across the U.S. Government.
Q: Why are these topics important to U.S. policymakers and analysts?
A: We see crowdsourced forecasting on security and democratic governance in Africa as a potential source of insights and opportunity for awareness that can enrich policymakers’ understanding of Africa. These topics are important to U.S. Government stakeholders for several reasons, including:
- The Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s research agenda has included analyzing opportunities for expanded engagement with Africa in ways that would advance U.S. economic and security interests given Africa’s demographic potential, natural resources, and collective political leverage.
- Taking direction from the White House’s lead on the U.S.-Africa Partnership, the Departments of Defense and State have initiatives to reinforce the U.S.-Africa commitment to democracy, human rights, and institutional capacity building, instead of ceding these opportunities to China and Russia.
- As the U.S. presidential election approaches, analysts and policymakers alike are considering how to refresh recommendations for U.S. international engagement priorities, including in Africa.
Q: Can you provide more detail about the series RAND has published exploring these urgent issues in Africa and African diaspora countries? Where can forecasters access this work if they’d like to learn more?
A: Below are links and brief explanations for the three-part commentary series and multimedia production published on RAND.org. The RAND Africa Research team hopes to leverage the crowd forecasting data in future commentaries like these.
- April 2024: "In the Congo: Applying Research to Issues of Poverty and Servitude" delves into the multifaceted challenges of poverty in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
- May 2024: "What Can Stop Haiti's Free Fall?" analyzes Haiti’s ongoing crisis, including the root causes of instability and economic decline, and provides recommendations aimed at stabilizing the country and fostering long-term development.
- May 2024: "Sudanese Women as Agents of Change in the Wake of Conflict" focuses on the pivotal role of Sudanese women in post-conflict reconstruction and peacebuilding. The commentary further discusses the barriers these women face and potential policy measures to empower them.
- July 2024: "Factoring Africa into U.S. Security Policy" (short video) examines reasons behind the geopolitical significance and connection shared between Africa and the African diaspora and their importance to the broader global economy.
Q: What questions should forecasters start with?
A. Questions tagged under “Africa” contribute to this effort. You may start with any of the ones released so far:
- Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
- Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
- Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?