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Monkeypox: The Outcome We Didn’t Expect

Zev Burton
Why were we, as a crowd, trending in the wrong direction on this question? Granted, with a 30% chance of occurring, it’s going to happen three out of ten times, but why wasn’t our forecast higher? 

Dear Fern: Why do we use numbers to express a forecast?

Zev Burton
Fern answers a question concerning the ambiguity of language and explains why INFER uses numerical probabilities instead.

Dear Fern: I'm not an expert

A new advice column in which forecasters write in to "Fern" for help with anything forecasting related. Today's forecaster writes in: I'm not an expert on AI or microelectronics, can I still forecast on these questions?
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