Factor
U.S. distrust of military/government
Metrics:
U.S. use of lethal autonomous drone
U.S. trust of military survey
U.S. trust of government use of data survey
65% of stakeholders believe an increase in U.S. distrust of military/government would negatively affect the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship
U.S. distrust of military/government
Metric:
Will the U.S. military acknowledge using an autonomously operated drone to identify and deploy lethal force against a human target in the next four quarters (year)?
Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
- Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of 10 percent with a negative correlation (-0.3) between forecasts and overall expectations for the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship. The same/worse cohort’s average forecast (16 percent) is higher than the improve cohort’s average forecast (7 percent). The same/worse cohort’s higher forecast indicates a greater expectation of distrust.
- Crowd's view. The crowd’s forecast (24 percent) is higher than the average stakeholder forecast and closer to the views of the same/worse cohort. The crowd’s higher forecast indicates an expectation of higher U.S. distrust of military/government, relative to the stakeholders. According to the stakeholder consensus, this has negative implications for the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship.
U.S. distrust of military/government
Metric:
How will the percentage of U.S. residents with "very little" or "some" trust in the U.S. military change over the next three years?
Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
- Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of 29 percent by 2024, with a negative correlation (-0.5) between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship. The same/worse cohort’s average forecast (31 percent in 2024) is higher than the improve cohort’s average forecast (28 percent in 2024), indicating a greater expectation of distrust. The difference between the cohorts’ forecasts is statistically significant.
- Crowd's view. The crowd expects the percentage of U.S. residents with “some” or “very little” trust in the military to stay at about 31 percent. The crowd’s forecast is closer to the same/worse cohort. The crowd’s forecast indicates an expectation of higher U.S. distrust of military/government, relative to the stakeholders. According to the stakeholder consensus, this has negative implications for the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship.
U.S. distrust of military/government
Metric:
According to a June 2019 Pew Research Center survey, 64% of surveyed U.S. residents were “very” or “somewhat” concerned about how the government uses their data. Assuming the same question is asked in August 2022, what will the percentage be?
Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
- Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of 67 percent in 2022, with no correlation between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship.
- Crowd's view. The crowd’s forecast for 2022 is the same as the stakeholders’ average forecast for 2022. The crowd expects that the percentage of U.S residents who are “very” or “somewhat” concerned about how the government is using their data will increase slightly, from 64 percent in 2019—the only time the survey was conducted—to 67.6 percent in 2022 and 69.4 percent in 2023.
More information on stakeholder and crowd forecasts forthcoming.