fionack
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Feb 1, 2024 09:20PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Nov 1, 2023 to May 1, 2024
95%
No
Nov 1, 2023 to May 1, 2024

Unless Iran is directly attacked I don’t see why they wouldn’t just continue using proxies (as others have noted, it wouldn’t make much sense to attack the west directly and incite a larger conflict). However, the conflict in the region is certainly escalating with recent missile strikes in Gaza so it’s possible.

Also I don’t think this plays a role in whether or not this question happens as it’s likely a defensive move by Iran that has been in motion for a while, but Iran definitely appears to be prioritizing the creation of a nuclear bomb (see uranium related questions). 

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