Now that the US is out of the picture, I don’t think any of the remaining members of JCPOA will initiate the snapback sanctions on Iran for the following reasons:
1. Triggering the snapback mechanism would not halt Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon, nor would it on its own have a devastating effect on Iran's economy.
2. Fear of snapback will increase the risk of escalation diplomatic relationship issues with Iran, and affecting JCPOA negotiation power.
3. Because of Iran arm deals with Russia, Most likely Russia and china will not enforce the renewed sanctions.
Why do you think you're right?
Now that the US is out of the picture, I don’t think any of the remaining members of JCPOA will initiate the snapback sanctions on Iran for the following reasons:
1. Triggering the snapback mechanism would not halt Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon, nor would it on its own have a devastating effect on Iran's economy.
2. Fear of snapback will increase the risk of escalation diplomatic relationship issues with Iran, and affecting JCPOA negotiation power.
3. Because of Iran arm deals with Russia, Most likely Russia and china will not enforce the renewed sanctions.
https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/policy-briefs/trigger-warning-consequences-snapping-back-sanctions-iran
Why might you be wrong?
1. The snapback mechanism itself expires in October 2025.
2. Political pressure from Europe and the US want to trigger snapback to punish Iran for its bad behavior before existing restrictions expire.