From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?
DippySkippy made their 14th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
3% (-17%)
Less than 200
75% (+13%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
16% (+5%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
2% (-1%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
2% (0%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
2% (0%)
More than or equal to 1000

Acled data for April shows 200 exactly, hedging a few in case some get removed.

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