It's hard to forecast this without seeing the underlying index data rather than yoy or mom percentage changes. Mom inflation ranged from -0.15% to 1.31% between June and August 2022 - i.e., prices were relatively flat then. In contrast, mom inflation has been between 2.3% and 6.5% for Oct 22 through Mar 23. Mom headline inflation had a local peak in Feb 2023 at 6.5%; mom inflation was "only" 2.7% for Feb-Mar 2023.
I'll consider a possible best-case scenario first. Again, not knowing what the underlying inflation index is doing, I'm flying partially blind. (One could calculate values for the underlying index, of course, but it'd be much more time efficient to find these data at some point.) If 2.743% mom inflation from Feb to Mar resulted in a 0.556% increase in annual inflation from Feb to Mar (i.e., (1.32665/1.31932 - 1) * 100%), and if mom inflation has actually peaked, then annual inflation might increase by ~0.5% from Mar through August, with large variations possible. With Mar 23 annual inflation at 32.665%, Aug inflation would then be (((1.32665 * 1.005^5) - 1) * 100%) = 36.0%.
I think it's far more likely, though, that mom inflation did not actually peak in Feb 23. The current economic situation is dire, and the recent dip in mom inflation was most likely just temporary and perhaps related to Ramadan; there was a similar dip around the same time last year, too. Egypt's currency is collapsing, the country has dwindling FX reserves, and another currency devaluation may be around the corner. S&P also just lowered Egypt's credit outlook to negative. The IMF is willing to release more loans to Egypt if the country allows more exchange-rate flexibility - i.e., devaluation - and greater privatization of the economy; I suspect that negotiations with the IMF will likely be completed and any absolutely required changes enacted before the end of August, and probably substantially before, perhaps by June. The FX situation is especially bad for Egypt because the country imports more than 50% of its food, and food accounted for 20% of all Egyptian imports in 2021; Egypt is the largest wheat importer in the world. Food and drink also account for nearly 1/3 of the average Egyptian family's budget. Any further devaluation will increase inflation because it will cause food and other prices to increase. Because of the dire inflation situation, the government has just increased the budget for social welfare programs by 48% for 2023-2024; such increases in domestic spending will also favor increasing inflation. Meanwhile, Egypt's central bank chief has said that monetary policy (i.e., raising interest rates) alone won't solve the inflation crisis, as he sees the inflation situation as mainly being caused by supply issues.
With no clear path towards bringing inflation down, and several signals that it may continue to increase, I think it's extremely likely that annual inflation will reach 40% in one or more months between March and August 2023. Inflation in Egypt is going to be a tough nut to crack, and I suspect it's going to get substantially worse before it gets better. The country is going to need to work hard to stabilize the economy and build up FX reserves, and that will take time. At least world food prices seem to be coming down slowly and aren't making a bad situation even worse.
It's hard to forecast this without seeing the underlying index data rather than yoy or mom percentage changes. Mom inflation ranged from -0.15% to 1.31% between June and August 2022 - i.e., prices were relatively flat then. In contrast, mom inflation has been between 2.3% and 6.5% for Oct 22 through Mar 23. Mom headline inflation had a local peak in Feb 2023 at 6.5%; mom inflation was "only" 2.7% for Feb-Mar 2023.
I'll consider a possible best-case scenario first. Again, not knowing what the underlying inflation index is doing, I'm flying partially blind. (One could calculate values for the underlying index, of course, but it'd be much more time efficient to find these data at some point.) If 2.743% mom inflation from Feb to Mar resulted in a 0.556% increase in annual inflation from Feb to Mar (i.e., (1.32665/1.31932 - 1) * 100%), and if mom inflation has actually peaked, then annual inflation might increase by ~0.5% from Mar through August, with large variations possible. With Mar 23 annual inflation at 32.665%, Aug inflation would then be (((1.32665 * 1.005^5) - 1) * 100%) = 36.0%.
I think it's far more likely, though, that mom inflation did not actually peak in Feb 23. The current economic situation is dire, and the recent dip in mom inflation was most likely just temporary and perhaps related to Ramadan; there was a similar dip around the same time last year, too. Egypt's currency is collapsing, the country has dwindling FX reserves, and another currency devaluation may be around the corner. S&P also just lowered Egypt's credit outlook to negative. The IMF is willing to release more loans to Egypt if the country allows more exchange-rate flexibility - i.e., devaluation - and greater privatization of the economy; I suspect that negotiations with the IMF will likely be completed and any absolutely required changes enacted before the end of August, and probably substantially before, perhaps by June. The FX situation is especially bad for Egypt because the country imports more than 50% of its food, and food accounted for 20% of all Egyptian imports in 2021; Egypt is the largest wheat importer in the world. Food and drink also account for nearly 1/3 of the average Egyptian family's budget. Any further devaluation will increase inflation because it will cause food and other prices to increase. Because of the dire inflation situation, the government has just increased the budget for social welfare programs by 48% for 2023-2024; such increases in domestic spending will also favor increasing inflation. Meanwhile, Egypt's central bank chief has said that monetary policy (i.e., raising interest rates) alone won't solve the inflation crisis, as he sees the inflation situation as mainly being caused by supply issues.
With no clear path towards bringing inflation down, and several signals that it may continue to increase, I think it's extremely likely that annual inflation will reach 40% in one or more months between March and August 2023. Inflation in Egypt is going to be a tough nut to crack, and I suspect it's going to get substantially worse before it gets better. The country is going to need to work hard to stabilize the economy and build up FX reserves, and that will take time. At least world food prices seem to be coming down slowly and aren't making a bad situation even worse.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-14/egypt-s-central-banker-explains-policy-in-rare-public-appearance
https://www.fas.usda.gov/egypt-2020-export-highlights
https://knoema.com/atlas/Egypt/Food-imports