cmeinel
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Less than 7%
35% (-13%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
61% (+13%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 22%

I'm higher on <12% than both my teams based upon the deteriorating situation inside Russia. For example, this is the first news I have encountered of a possibly fatal Russian military attack against one of Russia's legally allowed private armies. The culprits could have been either the official Russian army or Kadyrov's private Army, which allegedly has been replacing the retiring (retreating?) Wagner private army in the Bakhmut area. 

Dateline 6-2-2023 The boss of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has continued his months-long war of words with the leadership of the Russian armed forces by accusing pro-Moscow forces of planting explosives to harm his fighters as they retreated from Bakhmut.

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/3/wagner-boss-says-russian-forces-laid-mines-to-harm-his-fighters

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