RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2024 05:00PM	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	0.247733
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?	-0.012548
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	1.441274
Aug 28, 2023 05:09PM	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)?	0.3994
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022?	0.139613
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank?	-0.003379
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM	How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?	-0.015505
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?	0.063228
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	Which country or union will have the second most citations of "high impact" AI scientific publications in 2022?	0.065657
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	-0.005998
Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.049562
Apr 1, 2023 04:01AM	Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?	-0.004915
Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM	How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023?	0.046186
Mar 21, 2023 04:00PM	How much will On Running earn in net sales from shoes in Q4 2022?	-0.070695
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.006263
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM	On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?	0.042839
Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM	What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022?	-0.015005
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.180317
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.428132
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website?	-0.000871

Date Ended

Question

Relative Brier Score

Jan 1, 2024 05:00PM

Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?

0.247733

Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM

By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?

-0.012548

Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM

Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?

1.441274